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India and Pakistan: Reduced Himalayan Snowfall Could Spark Water War

The two countries share the Indus River, one of the longest rivers in the world. The river rises in southwestern Tibet and flows northwest through the Himalayas. It crosses into the disputed Kashmir region, meandering to the Indian and Pakistani administered areas of the territory.

Pakistan and India have long been embroiled in a territorial dispute over Kashmir, but have so far managed to uphold a World Bank-mediated Indus Water Treaty (IWT) that provides mechanisms for resolving disputes over water sharing. Any drastic reduction in the availability of water in the region has the potential of causing a war between the hostile south Asian neighbors, experts said. Kashmir is located in the northwest region of the Indian subcontinent. It covers the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and the Pakistani- administered northern areas and "Azad" Kashmir province. Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract are occupied by China.

Based on scientific findings released last December, the snow cover in Jammu and Kashmir is declining while temperature is rising. The findings were the results of a study conducted by senior scientist H. S. Negi and his colleagues, and were published in the 'Journal of Earth System Sciences', a bimonthly science publication in India.

The findings were based on 20 years worth of climatic condition data, covering the periods 1988-89 to 2007-08, and were undertaken during the winter periods between November and April of 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07, using multi-temporal sensor data.

"Snow cover monitoring was carried out to evaluate the region-wise accumulation and ablation pattern of snow cover in the Pir Panjal and Shamshawari ranges of Kashmir valley," said Negi. "The study shows reduction in the areal extent of seasonal snow cover and rising trend of maximum temperature in three winters for the entire Kashmir valley."

Negi and his team found that the total snowfall in the winter of 2004-05 was 1,082 centimetres across the valley, which declined to 968 centimetres during the period 2005-06 and reduced further to 961 centimetres between 2006 and 2007.

"February, the second month of maximum snowfall, showed rapid fluctuation, with 585 centimetres in 2004-05 compared to 207 centimetres in 2005-06 and 221 centimetres in 2006-07," said the scientists, adding that the temperatures remained more than zero degree Celsius during winters, except for January-February 2004-05 and January 2006 against a normal sub-zero temperature.

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